Why 2027 is the inflection year
If your company is building your ad revenue forecasting 2027 model around cookies, it's probably starting in the wrong place because you are still solving last year's problem and likely giving it more attention than the market.
Publishers were repeatedly told that third-party cookies would end on Chrome, but this deprecation plan never fully materialised. Google ultimately abandoned the Privacy Sandbox rollout in 2025, and the industry didn't experience the "cookieless" future many had prepared for. But that didn't stop the ad market from growing while everyone debated what Google and other browser vendors might do next.
The forces impacting publisher revenue are now very different, and far more important.
As we head into 2027, market concentration, CTV growth, retail media expansion, first-party data and AI-powered media buying are controlling where ad budgets are allocated. That's why the year 2027 is a true inflection point for publishers, and not because cookies disappeared, but because the economics of digital advertising are changing.
As per the IAB's 2025 Internet Advertising Revenue Report released this April 2026, the digital ad market drove record revenue, notably reaching $294.6 billion in 2025 (reflecting a YoY growth rate of 13.9%), while programmatic advertising rose to $162.4 billion (up 20.5% YoY), gaining $27.6 billion in new spend as automated buying continued to scale and lay the foundation for agentic AI-driven media buying. The digital advertising market is expected to reach $1.2 trillion by 2027, the major factor being the wide use of smartphones.
eMarketer reports that US programmatic advertising will surpass $200 billion in 2026, with most automated buys now transacted through programmatic direct deals and PMPs rather than the open exchange. In fact, the full report also stated that ad budgets continue consolidating into CTV, retail media, commerce media, and other premium environments where measurement, identity and outcomes are stronger. Video ads are gaining traction across social media platforms.
WARC Media reports also suggest that retail media networks and Connected TV will capture larger advertising budgets by 2027, almost as much as $200 billion worldwide.
And AI is accelerating these trends by automating media buying, creative optimisation and campaign analysis, helping advertisers track performance, improve attribution and make faster buying decisions.
Together, these trends point to an industry where advertisers and marketers are investing more than ever, but they're also becoming more selective about where those budgets go, favouring channels that deliver measurable outcomes, stronger consumer engagement and long-term growth.
What does that mean for publishers?
There are three possible scenarios:
1. Publishers with strong audience signals are projected to benefit in 2027. I
If they already have authenticated users, solid first-party data and a healthy mix of PMP, programmatic direct and open-market demand, they're giving buyers what their bidding models increasingly reward. Better addressability creates more competition for their inventory, while diversified demand means they're less exposed to fluctuations in the open auction.
A Digiday report of 2025 found that 71% of publishers have considered first-party data to be an important factor in strong ad revenue performance. 85 % of them have considered this to be the foremost driver of profitable ad yield in 2026. After using privacy-safe identity signals, The New York Times Advertising has seen impressive results such as: +81% growth in revenue on browsers with restricted cookies
Under this scenario, take this as an illustrative example. Assume that 60-70% of impressions of these publishers are sold via PMP and programmatic direct deals, with the remainder transacted on the open market. Here, eCPMs may remain stable or increase around 10-20%, supporting low double-digit revenue growth despite broader market pressure. In short, this helps protect yield and positions these publishers to likely maintain or even grow effective CPMs as AI steers more spend towards inventory that consistently performs.
2. 2027 could be more challenging for publishers that rely heavily on the open exchange. When most of their inventory is anonymous display sold through open-market RTB, they are competing against thousands of similar impressions in the bidstream. AI makes those comparisons even easier, pushing buyers towards inventory with stronger audience signals or direct access through PMPs.
In this scenario, assume more than 80% of inventory is sold via the open exchange, with fewer than 20% of impressions monetised through direct/PMP deals. Under these premises, eCPMs could decline by approx 20 to 30%, resulting in flat or declining ad revenue as demand shifts away from the open auction and undifferentiated inventory. Unless these publishers improve addressability or diversify demand, they might face continued CPM pressure.
3. Publishers and publishing brands with a mature PMP and direct programmatic deals strategy are already where the market is heading in 2027.
They're not waiting for the auction to decide what inventory is worth. For them, more demand is already coming through curated deals where buyers are willing to pay for transparency, premium environments and better audience match rates. That gives these publishers greater pricing power and stronger yield while reducing their exposure to the swings of the open exchange and their dependence on open-market pricing
Around 66% of open-exchange ad spend, which is around $100 billion in a year, is routed through curated Private Market Place.
Assume 50 - 70% of impressions are sold via PMPs or programmatic guaranteed deals, often commanding eCPMs that are significantly higher than comparable open-market inventory. Combined with growing investment in premium formats such as video and CTV, these publishers are projected to achieve higher eCPMs and stronger YoY revenue growth.
Publishers with stronger first-party data, diversified demand, curated deals, premium new formats and the ability to plug into AI-driven buying are in a better position to maintain or experience a surge in CPMs in 2027. Those relying heavily on undifferentiated open-exchange inventory might face increasing pricing pressure.
How to Forecast Your 2027 Digital Ad Revenue
No publisher can predict exactly what their ad revenue will look like in 2027. It is essential to have an understanding of revenue-per-session for a comprehensive analysis of earnings projections for publishers.
But you can build a reasonable forecast by testing a few key assumptions.
Start with the basics:
Annual Sessions × Pages Per Session × Viewable Impressions Per Page = Total Viewable Impressions.
Multiply those impressions by a blended eCPM, then adjust it based on demand mix, first-party data readiness, direct/PMP share and video inventory. Here, increasing the share of direct or PMP deals can lift your blended eCPM. Likewise, growing video inventory or improving first-party data can increase impression value.
If a greater proportion of your inventory remains in the open market, your blended eCPM may stay flat or grow more slowly. Listing each assumption separately makes it easier to identify the biggest revenue drivers.
What to invest in NOW for 2027
Prioritise investments in:
- First-party data & identity: Invest in consented first-party data and identity solutions (interoperable IDs like Unified ID 2.0). This improves addressability and audience monetisation. To know more and form a strong overview, see our guide to first-party data strategy.
- Direct advertiser and PMP relationships: Increase direct and PMP demand to improve yield and blended eCPMs.
- Video and CTV inventory: Expand premium video formats and CTV inventory to capture higher-value advertiser spend.
- Core Web Vitals: Improve Core Web Vitals to increase viewability and monetisable inventory.
- A managed yield partner: Use a managed yield partner to optimise auction dynamics, demand competition and revenue performance.
These investments help publishers improve CPMs, diversify revenue and stay competitive as programmatic advertising trends and privacy regulations reshape the ad market.
Publift Fuse Ad Revenue Forecasting 2027 Toolkit
Rather than relying on broad industry averages, the Publift Fuse platform uses intelligent features like machine learning and billions of anonymised data points to support ad revenue forecasting 2027 through scenario modelling.
Instead of estimating a single outcome, publishers can compare how changes in first-party data adoption, PMP share or video inventory could impact projected revenue using anonymised historical performance. This grounds forecasting in observed publisher trends while keeping hypothetical scenarios separate from benchmark data.
If you'd like to build a forecast based on your own setup, talk to the Publift team.
FAQs
Will cookies disappear in 2027?
No. Third-party cookies will remain in some browsers, but for publishers, first-party data, identity signals and AI-driven buying will matter more. As privacy regulations evolve, publishers that invest in consented data and identity solutions will be better positioned to maintain addressability and maximise revenue.
What will drive publisher revenue in 2027?
Key drivers for 2027 publisher revenue include first-party data, premium inventory, direct or PMP deals, video/CTV and AI optimisation, which collectively improve CPMs, diversify demand and align with shifting advertiser strategies.
How do I forecast ad revenue for 2027?
Use an ad revenue forecasting model based on traffic, viewable impressions, blended eCPM and different demand mix assumptions. Start with your expected sessions and impressions, then test scenarios by adjusting variables such as first-party data readiness, direct/PMP share, and video inventory to build a more realistic forecast.
Is open-exchange RTB dying?
Open-exchange RTB is not dying and remains an important source of publisher demand, but it is losing share to programmatic guaranteed deals, curated marketplaces, and PMPs. A balanced demand strategy that combines open-market demand with higher-value private deals is likely to deliver stronger revenue performance in the long term.